On one side, Lula is weakened by a wave of scandals surrounding his administration. On the other, Bolsonaro is facing serious health issues and legal battles that could bar him from running. Both leaders are in trouble—and Brazil’s political future is wide open.

The left-wing leader Lula lacks a clear successor and will face strong opposition in 2026. Recent revelations about fraud in the Brazilian pension system, persistent inflation, and unpopular government spending are now being weaponized by the right-wing opposition. Figures like Nikolas Ferreira, a young federal deputy with immense social media influence, are taking the lead in this communication war.

Lula’s government also suffers from weak messaging and growing internal tension. A key issue frequently mentioned by political insiders is the role of First Lady Janja da Silva, who is said to be influencing the president’s agenda—even creating friction within his inner circle.

“The lobbyist” and “the shaking hands group”

While Bolsonaro attempts to maintain unity among conservatives, his declining health and legal problems have opened the door for a new “invisible” leadership figure. Gilberto Kassab is becoming a central player. Former Mayor of São Paulo and Minister of Science under President Michel Temer, Kassab is now one of Brazil’s most influential political operators.

Kassab is closely connected to Brazil’s elite political circles and, according to several congressional sources, nothing major is being negotiated without his approval. He has reportedly ruled out supporting Lula, and analysts suggest he is also reluctant to back Bolsonaro.

A powerful coalition is quietly forming, composed of: Romeu Zema (Governor of Minas Gerais), Ratinho Jr. (Governor of Paraná), Ronaldo Caiado (Governor of Goiás), Michel Temer (Former President) and Nikolas Ferreira (Federal Deputy) is being called of “The Shaking Hands Group.”

These figures combine strong regional influence, broad communication reach, and national political weight. Kassab is aligned with them. This group could present a serious challenge to Lula—or any other left-wing candidate.

Potential successors on the left (and Lula), such as Fernando Haddad (Minister of Finance), Geraldo Alckmin (Vice President), Simone Tebet (Minister of Planning), and Erika Hilton (Federal Deputy), are being discussed in the media—but none currently show strong momentum or public support. Most polling shows a lack of enthusiasm for any clear left-wing alternative to Lula.

With Bolsonaro potentially out of the race, Tarcísio de Freitas may emerge as the natural heir to the right-wing electorate. He would likely receive full backing from Bolsonaro’s family, who remain influential in Congress, the Senate, and across social media.

Tarcísio also enjoys support from major conservative figures—including members of the “shaking hands” group—and is viewed as a pragmatic, less polarizing alternative to Bolsonaro.

His political resume is strong:

• Current Governor of São Paulo, Brazil’s most important state;

• Former Minister of Infrastructure under Bolsonaro;

• Former director of the DNIT (National Department of Transport Infrastructure) during President Dilma Rousseff’s administration;

A military engineer by training, Tarcísio studied at IME (Brazil’s elite Military Engineering Institute), where he still holds the record for the highest GPA in the school’s history, until now.

While he doesn’t yet enjoy the same level of popular recognition as Lula or Bolsonaro, Tarcísio’s name is gaining ground in early polling, especially in scenarios where Lula runs without a unified left or Bolsonaro is disqualified.

I don’t have a crystal ball, of course. But if current dynamics continue, and the opposition unites under a single candidacy, Tarcísio de Freitas may very well become Brazil’s next president.

The President, the Federal Supreme Court and these two important positions: the Head of Senate and the President of the Chamber of Deputies.

The New President of the Federal Senate is David Alcolumbre and The New President of the Chamber of Deputies is Hugo Motta. The two politicians were supported by the former bosses.

It's not necessarily good news.

Alcolumbre reinforced in his speech inauguration: “he was committed to preserving the Senate's independence.” Motta also said: "Maintain its autonomy and independence in its relationship with the other powers."

Next week, the two new leaders will join the President Lula in a meeting.

Two well-known politicians. Nothing new in terms of future perspectives.

Some Brazilians are comparing our actual president with Joe Biden. It’s really very similar to Biden’s behavior indeed: lost and living in a different era.

Fernando Haddad, Brazilian minister of economy, is pressured by inflation, interest rates and…trust.

Entrepreneurs and investors (of all sizes and sectors) aren’t trusting in the government, and Fernando Haddad is in the center of this trusting crisis.

With interest rates and inflation raising as well, it will be a huge challenge to change the way.

Errand boy

Months ago, Rubens Ometto owner of Cosan (CSAN:NYSE), one of the historical supporters of Lula, made an important speech about the moment. He’s not trusting anymore. When investors of a size of Ometto go public and criticize the government, we know the final story.

It’s only an opinion, but he (Fernando Haddad) will not be able to withstand the pressure of the current moment and the next months.

Fernando Haddad is acting only as an “errand boy” for Lula.

Lula’s speeches make me think this too.

Despite the Brazilian companies earnings going well, Brazil's Central Bank hikes the basic interest rate to 12.25% a year and the inflation rate is not under control. The government is not prepared to cut the bills, so… the path to fix some important problems to raise the taxes (fisco). The worst decision.

Result: Brazilians are less confident with the President and the government.

All research institutes are publishing that Lula’s popularity is going down. To be more specific, If the elections here were held today, Lula would not be elected (my opinion).

To complement this popularity crisis, the agency that measure economy, demography and the most important trends in Brazil, the IBGE, is going through another institutional crisis, because its president Marcio Pochmann (appointed by Lula) is being pressured by the institution's directors to provide more transparency in the published numbers and also follow the rules for analyzing data without government interference.

Lula still lives with the former President Bolsonaro popularity shadow and will not attend the inauguration ceremony of the elected President of the United States, Donald Trump (Republican Party), on January 20.

Brazil is the 11th largest economy in the world, with an estimated GDP of $1.92 trillion in 2024.